Is the 'Brain Drain' here to stay, or can we reverse the trend?

New Zealand's "brain drain" phenomenon has been a major talking point recently, with record numbers of Kiwis leaving the country in 2024. The statistics are stark: over 130,000 people have departed New Zealand so far this year, with more than 80,000 of them being citizens seeking new opportunities abroad. Of those leaving, about one-third are heading to Australia, seeking better prospects or simply a change in scenery. While this kind of migration isn't new, the sheer scale of departures has raised questions about whether the brain drain is here to stay, or whether it can be reversed.

Historically, New Zealand has experienced waves of outward migration, particularly during economic slowdowns. The current trend appears to be no different, coinciding with a quieter domestic economy and rising interest rates, which have significantly impacted sectors like construction. While opportunities across the Tasman might look more attractive, it's important to note that Australia's employment market has its own complexities, with sectors like Victoria and New South Wales reportedly lagging behind other parts of the country.

Another contributing factor to the current brain drain is the backlog of people who were unable to travel during the COVID-19 pandemic. Many Kiwis had their plans for overseas experiences (OE) put on hold due to lockdowns and travel restrictions, leading to a surge in departures now that international borders have reopened. This pent-up demand for travel has added to the already significant number of people seeking opportunities abroad, suggesting that the current trend might level off once this backlog clears.

"I have spent the year trying to convince people that the grass isn't always necessarily greener, despite what all the media says at the moment."

In Frog Recruitment's Thrive in 2025 NZ Market Update, Manging Director Shannon Barlow, and Wellington Branch Manager Peter Crestani, dug deep into the factors influencing New Zealanders' decisions to leave the country, and what it might mean for the future of the Kiwi workforce.

Shannon opened by reflecting on her own experience of moving abroad and returning, adding a personal touch to the discussion. "I have spent the year trying to convince people that the grass isn't always necessarily greener, despite what all the media says at the moment." She mentioned how the allure of overseas opportunities, particularly in Australia, might not always live up to expectations. Many people move thinking they'll find significantly better prospects, but as Shannon and Peter highlighted, the situation is often more nuanced.

Peter Crestani brought valuable insights from his experience managing Frog Recruitment's Wellington branch, noting how these migration trends often follow the economic conditions. He shared, "It's really a nuanced thing. Construction in New Zealand is really struggling, and there'll be a lot of tradies and people in that sector looking to go. But it could change when the economy picks up." He highlighted the cyclical nature of these waves of migration, suggesting that as New Zealand's economic conditions improve, we may see a return of talent, much like the ebb and flow of a tide.

Interestingly, Peter also spoke about the differences between Australian and New Zealand work environments. He noted, "The working environment in Australia is a lot more cutthroat. The prospects are bigger, but there's also more competition." While Australia might offer larger-scale projects and more substantial infrastructure work, the competition and intensity of the job market can be challenging for those used to the New Zealand way of life.

Shannon also highlighted how much of the current migration wave is due to a backlog caused by the pandemic. "Of course, there's that backlog of people who weren't able to go on their big OE during COVID and lockdowns, so we're still in a little bit of catch-up mode," she said. Many Kiwis are now seizing the opportunity to travel and work overseas that they were previously denied, creating an artificial surge in departures that may level out over time.

It's clear that while the numbers of people leaving are concerning, there's also potential for many of these individuals to return. Peter put it aptly: "Some people come back, some people stay. It's just like a tide; it goes in and comes out. Sometimes it's a king tide like what we're seeing now, but it will come back." This sentiment reflects the optimism that, as circumstances change, many of those seeking opportunities elsewhere may eventually find their way back home.

Shannon and Peter both agreed that New Zealand still holds many advantages, particularly when it comes to work-life balance. "In New Zealand, you can have that work-life balance, go to those appointments, and it's just different compared to the go-go-go culture in Australia," Peter explained. The flexibility offered in New Zealand's working environment is something that, for many, outweighs the higher salaries available elsewhere.

Navigating the Current Landscape

If you're considering a move abroad, it's important to weigh the pros and cons carefully. Here are some practical tips for those thinking about making the leap, or even those wondering if they should stay put:

1. Evaluate the Real Cost of Living: Moving to another country might come with a higher salary, but the cost of living can also be significantly higher. Be sure to do thorough research and factor in costs like housing, transportation, and taxes to get a true picture of what your new life will be like.
   
   
2. Understand the Job Market: While Australia's job market is larger, it also has more competition, particularly in popular cities like Sydney and Melbourne. If you're planning to move, make sure your skills are in demand, and be prepared for the intensity of the job search process there.
   
   
3. Consider Work-Life Balance: Work-life balance is often cited as a major factor in job satisfaction. New Zealand offers a more relaxed lifestyle with more opportunities for flexible working, which may not be as readily available in Australia. Consider what kind of work environment suits you best before making a decision.
   
   
4. Have a Contingency Plan: Moving overseas is a significant life change, and it's crucial to have a contingency plan if things don’t work out as expected. Whether that means maintaining connections in New Zealand, keeping your property, or having enough savings to return if needed, being prepared will give you peace of mind.
   
   
5. Go With an Open Mind: As Peter noted, "If you're going to make that change, you've got to go over with an open mind to see what it's like and if it suits." Moving abroad is about new experiences and personal growth, but it can also come with challenges. Understanding that it may not be forever can help you make the most of the experience without undue pressure.
   
   

New Zealand might be experiencing a "brain drain" now, but it's clear that many factors influence whether Kiwis decide to stay abroad or return. By making informed choices and keeping options open, individuals can better navigate these transitions, ensuring that whatever path they choose, it's the right one for them.

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In business since 2002 in New Zealand, Frog Recruitment is an award-winning recruitment agency with people at our heart. Located across Auckland and Wellington, we specialise in accounting and finance, business support, education, executive, government, HR, legal, marketing and digital, property, sales, supply chain, and technology sectors. As the proud recipients of the 2024 RCSA Excellence in Candidate Care Award, we are dedicated to helping businesses achieve success through a people-first approach.